Weak Global Demand Slows Kenya’s Cross-Border Trade
Kenya’s cross-border trade recorded a sluggish start to 2025, with latest data showing a decline in both export receipts and import spending across multiple global markets.
The performance reflects a cautious global trade environment shaped by shifting demand, volatile commodity prices, and emerging regional realignments.
New data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that export earnings fell by 6.9 percent in the first quarter, dropping to Sh276.7 billion from Sh297.3 billion during the same period in 2024.
Africa, which remains Kenya’s largest export market, accounting for nearly 37 percent of total exports, saw a notable 10 percent decline in trade volumes. Shipments to key regional destinations–including Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)–dropped significantly, pointing to regional demand weaknesses or logistical constraints.
There were, however, pockets of resilience. Exports to Burundi and South Africa recorded growth of 46.9 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, partially cushioning the wider drop across the continent.
Trade with Asia, which forms a vital part of Kenya’s external sector, declined even more sharply. Export receipts from Asia fell by 17.7 percent to Sh66.1 billion. This was attributed largely to reduced tea shipments and lower volumes of re-exported jet fuel, particularly to the Gulf states.
In Europe, flower and tea exports continued to slump, leading to a 10.4 percent dip in export earnings, especially from long-standing partners like the Netherlands and the UK. A rise in coffee exports to Belgium was a rare bright spot in the European trade profile.
Kenya’s trade with the Americas also contracted. Export earnings from the region fell to Sh21.3 billion, weighed down by reduced shipments of titanium and jet fuel. These changes mark a broader pattern of softening demand for Kenya’s traditional export products across several global regions.
On the import front, the country’s bill shrunk by 4.5 percent to Sh652.3 billion during the same period. Imports from Europe, America, and Africa all declined, in line with a more cautious trade stance and lower global commodity prices.
Asia, however, continued to dominate Kenya’s import landscape, accounting for more than two-thirds of the total. Imports from China rose to Sh148.6 billion, reinforcing the country’s role as Kenya’s top trading partner. Petroleum imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also increased during the quarter.
An unexpected rise came from Australia, with imports jumping from Sh861 million to Sh4.1 billion, mainly driven by increased sorghum shipments–possibly in response to higher domestic demand or gaps in local supply.
The KNBS data points to a mixed outlook for Kenya’s trade sector in 2025. While some markets are showing signs of recovery or resilience, overall momentum is constrained by broader economic uncertainty and sector-specific setbacks.
Trade analysts say the coming quarters will be critical for observing whether diversification strategies and ongoing regional trade initiatives can revive momentum and protect against further external shocks.
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